The Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) has earned recognition as Africa’s Best Exchange at the 2026 Euromoney Markets Awards. But an award recognising achievements in 2025 cannot settle the more important question confronting Nigeria’s capital market: can the exchange convert its spectacular growth into a deeper market that finances more businesses and sustains a broader base of investors? The distinction matters. A rising stock market creates wealth for shareholders, but a developed capital market must also mobilise fresh capital for productive investment across the economy.
The figures are impressive. The All-Share Index gained 51.19 percent in 2025, while equities turnover rose by 109.48 percent to ₦5.96 trillion and market capitalisation reached ₦99.38 trillion. By October 16, 2026, the index had advanced 59.07 percent year-to-date, turnover had reached ₦7.82 trillion and market capitalisation stood at ₦160.73 trillion. These gains reflect renewed investor confidence and improvements in market infrastructure. They also create expectations that the exchange must now demonstrate its capacity to sustain participation beyond a period of exceptional price appreciation.
“NGX must therefore demonstrate that it can turn this moment into durable participation. It should publish quarterly data distinguishing newly opened accounts from funded and actively trading accounts, while disclosing retail and foreign participation in turnover.”
NGX has made worthwhile investments towards that objective. Its electronic public-offer platform, NGX Invest, facilitated more than ₦2.8 trillion in capital raising during the banking recapitalisation exercise. Its distribution network expanded to more than 180 channels by September, including digital subscription through WhatsApp. Nigeria also moved to a T+1 settlement cycle in June, reducing the time between trading and settlement. These developments improve access and operational efficiency. The exchange’s net-zero programme, which has engaged more than 50 companies but onboarded only 19 as community members, also points towards the need to develop sustainable-finance opportunities.
The market’s headline performance conceals a significant weakness: concentration. According to a THISDAY analysis, 11 companies accounted for 75.9 percent of the ₦165.1 trillion market capitalisation recorded at the end of October. Their combined market value increased by ₦58.9 trillion during the first ten months of 2026, against a total market-capitalisation increase of ₦65.7 trillion. In other words, these companies generated almost 90 percent of the market’s appreciation. Dangote Cement alone recorded a 133 percent share-price increase.
Large companies naturally command substantial market values, and their success should not be treated as a market failure. The concern is that a rally so heavily dependent on a handful of stocks can give an exaggerated impression of the wider market’s health. It also exposes index-tracking investors to concentration risk and leaves a more fundamental question unanswered: how much fresh equity capital is reaching the medium-sized businesses that could expand employment, production and exports?
Market capitalisation is not the same as capital formation. Rising share prices increase the value of existing shares, but they do not necessarily put new money into companies. A genuinely deeper market must demonstrate growth in primary capital raising, new listings, sectoral diversity and access for businesses beyond established blue-chip issuers. The exchange should therefore report how much fresh equity non-financial companies raise annually, how many new companies list, how many leave the market and how much capital reaches smaller and mid-sized enterprises.
The rally also owes much to developments beyond the exchange’s control. Inflation eased to 14.63 percent in September, while the Central Bank of Nigeria reduced its monetary policy rate to 23 percent. The naira also appreciated, and the FTSE Russell restored Nigeria’s frontier-market classification with effect from September 21, following improvements in foreign-exchange repatriation and settlement conditions. These are welcome developments, but none guarantees a sustained bull market. Interest rates remain high, and foreign investors will continue to assess currency stability, liquidity and their ability to repatriate returns.
The volatility already evident in November reinforces this point. The All-Share Index fell 2.13 percent in the week ended November 6, wiping approximately ₦3.52 trillion off market capitalisation. The decline followed substantial gains and was driven partly by profit-taking in large-cap stocks. It illustrates why the exchange cannot rely on a rising index as its principal measure of success. Market resilience must be tested when investors begin to withdraw, not only when confidence is expanding.
The Dangote Refinery public offer provides another important test. The ₦2.15 trillion offer of 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 attracted orders of about ₦6.4 trillion, with more than two million investors subscribing through digital channels, according to Reuters. This is a significant demonstration of retail appetite and the potential of digital distribution. But subscriptions are not necessarily funded applications, successful allotments or lasting participation. Nor does the prospect of another large listing automatically diversify the market. At an implied valuation of about ₦65 trillion, the refinery could become one of the exchange’s largest companies, further increasing the influence of heavyweight stocks.
NGX must therefore demonstrate that it can turn this moment into durable participation. It should publish quarterly data distinguishing newly opened accounts from funded and actively trading accounts, while disclosing retail and foreign participation in turnover. It should also report the number of new listings, fresh equity raised, delistings and the distribution of capital across company sizes and sectors. Complaints, settlement failures and resolution times should be tracked publicly to establish whether improved technology is translating into reliable service.
The exchange must also work with regulators, investment banks and policymakers to reduce the cost and complexity of listing, strengthen corporate governance and improve the pipeline of investible businesses. Its own financial performance demonstrates why this matters. NGX Group reported ₦20.6 billion in profit before tax for the nine months ended September 2026, with transaction-fee revenue more than doubling to ₦20.7 billion. Such growth reflects not only the benefits of rising activity but also the need to build revenue streams and market participation that can withstand a downturn.
Euromoney’s award recognises progress worth celebrating. But the more consequential achievement would be a market in which large companies can thrive without overshadowing smaller ones, businesses can raise fresh capital and investors remain confident when share prices fall. Nigeria needs an exchange that does more than record a rally; it needs one that finances a broader, more productive economy.
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