A business does not need to participate in an election to suffer its consequences. Violence can force shops to close, disrupt transport routes and prevent manufacturers from receiving supplies.
Political uncertainty can also delay investment decisions, while changes to election dates can upend staff schedules, deliveries and commercial activities.
Nigeria’s electoral history offers several examples of how political developments can spill into the economy.
As the country approaches the 2027 general elections, the experiences of 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 offer important lessons for employers. While these events do not mean the same disruptions will recur, they show why businesses must prepare for uncertainty rather than wait for it to affect operations.
When political violence reaches the workplace
The 2011 presidential election was followed by widespread violence across northern Nigeria. Human Rights Watch reported that more than 800 people were killed in three days of rioting across 12 states, while more than 65,000 people were displaced. Shops, homes, vehicles and religious buildings were among the properties attacked.
The damage extended beyond physical assets. When violence makes an area unsafe, employees may be unable to get to work, transport routes can become inaccessible, customers may stay away, and deliveries may be delayed. Businesses that are not directly attacked can still lose working hours and revenue.
For employers, the lesson is straightforward: security planning must extend beyond company premises. Businesses need to understand the risks around their locations, maintain reliable communication channels with employees and establish arrangements for suspending or relocating operations when necessary.
Read also: INEC: PVCs ready, election materials on the move as 2027 polls gather steam
The cost of uncertainty can reach financial markets
Political uncertainty can affect businesses even without disrupting daily operations. It can influence how investors assess the economy, how lenders price risk and how companies make decisions about expansion and financing.
Nigeria experienced this in February 2015, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) postponed the presidential and National Assembly elections by six weeks following advice from security agencies that they could not guarantee adequate security.
The announcement came at a difficult time for the economy, with falling oil prices and mounting pressure on the foreign exchange market. In the week after the postponement, the Nigerian Stock Exchange fell by 6 percent, bond yields widened by 100 basis points, sovereign spreads increased by almost 40 basis points, and the naira depreciated by 4.5 percent in the interbank market, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
These movements cannot be attributed to the postponement alone. The economy was already under significant pressure from lower oil prices and other financial challenges. However, the episode illustrates how political uncertainty can compound existing economic pressures.
For businesses, movements in investor confidence, exchange rates and interest rates matter because they affect borrowing costs, imported inputs and investment decisions. Employers should therefore monitor economic developments alongside the political calendar.
When election postponements disrupt business
The 2019 elections offered another reminder that political uncertainty can carry immediate costs. In February, INEC postponed the presidential and National Assembly elections just hours before voting was scheduled to begin.
The sudden change affected more than the electoral timetable. Businesses and individuals had already made arrangements for travel, staffing, deliveries and other activities based on the original date. Those plans had to be adjusted.
Bismarck Rewane, an economist and chief executive of Financial Derivatives Company, estimated that the postponement could cost the economy about $10 billion, equivalent to roughly 2 percent of 2018 GDP. This was an estimate of potential losses, including postponement, consequential, opportunity and reputational costs, rather than an audited measurement of actual losses.
The wider point is that businesses can incur costs even when an election is postponed rather than cancelled. Transport arrangements, staff schedules, customer orders and commercial transactions may all be affected. Employers should consider how they would respond if election dates change, movement restrictions are introduced or normal working arrangements become difficult.
When policy decisions affect everyday transactions
The 2023 elections brought a different kind of disruption. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s naira redesign programme and the resulting cash shortages coincided with the election period. Although the shortages were not caused by the elections, their timing and implementation made an already challenging business environment more difficult.
For many businesses, the problem was practical: how to receive payments, pay suppliers, purchase materials and meet everyday expenses when cash was difficult to obtain. Fuel shortages added to the pressure.
S&P Global reported that private-sector activity in February 2023 recorded its sharpest decline since Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index survey began in 2014, excluding the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Falling customer orders and output, reduced purchasing, and lower employment were among the reported effects.
The experience shows why election preparedness cannot be limited to security arrangements. Businesses also need to consider access to cash, alternative payment channels, working capital, fuel supplies and the reliability of critical suppliers. Disruption in one part of the economy can quickly spread to others.
The security picture is not the same everywhere
The 2023 elections also highlighted the importance of looking beyond national averages when assessing security risks. A joint report by the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute recorded a wider geographical spread of election-related violence in 2023 than in 2019.
The figures cover election-cycle periods, not just election day. They show that the number of affected local government areas and recorded incidents increased in 2023, although fatalities remained below the 2015 figure.
For businesses operating across several states, this matters. A company’s premises may be safe while violence or tension in a neighbouring community disrupts the roads its workers use, prevents customers from reaching its outlets or delays the movement of goods. Security assessments must therefore reflect conditions in individual locations rather than rely solely on the national picture.
Preparing for the period, not just election day
Nigeria’s past elections show that the economic effects of political developments can begin before voting, continue during the election period and extend into the months that follow. The pressures vary, ranging from market uncertainty and postponed commercial activities to cash shortages and security threats.
For employers, preparation should begin with a review of security arrangements, essential operations, cash-flow requirements and supply chains. Businesses should identify alternative suppliers, establish clear communication procedures for employees and consider how operations would continue if movement, payments or deliveries were disrupted.
Business associations also have an important role in sharing verified information, identifying emerging concerns and engaging policymakers on measures that support a predictable business environment.
None of these experiences determines what will happen in 2027. But they make one point clear: businesses cannot afford to treat elections as events that concern only politicians and voters. The economy does not go to the polls, but it can feel the consequences long after the votes have been counted.
For employers, the priority is to protect their people, keep essential activities running and remain prepared for disruptions.
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Oluwatobi Ojabello, PhD, is a dynamic and multi-dimensional Assistant Editor for Economy and Markets with over two years of professional journalism experience. He delivers authoritative, data-driven coverage of fiscal policy, financial institutions and capital markets, using clear analysis to explain Nigeria’s most complex economic developments. His work focuses on macroeconomic policy, financial stability and corporate performance, turning technical issues into accessible narratives that inform both experts and everyday readers.
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