Conoil shareholders have had a hard run. An investment worth N100,000 at the end of 2024 was worth about N54,240 by the end of October 2026, before dividends and trading costs.
It was a sharp reversal. Conoil had surged 361.5% in 2024, climbing from N83.90 to N387.20 per share. Then it lost more than half its value in 2025, falling 51.7% to N187.20.
The stock recovered some ground in 2026. It rose 12.2% to N210.00 by the end of October and was still at that price as of the close of trading on November 11, 2026.
That rebound recovered only 11.4% of the N200 per share lost in 2025 and still lagged the NGX Oil & Gas Index, which rose 127.90% over the same ten months.
Conoil has been consistent in dividend payments. It paid a dividend in each of the five financial years from 2021 to 2025, but it cut the payout from N3.50 per share for 2024 to N2.00 for 2025. At N210, that last dividend gives shareholders a gross yield of just 0.95%.
With earnings recovering and the capital gain still far below its old level, it is plausible to expect Conoil to increase dividend payout for the 2026 financial year.
The earnings make that a reasonable ask. The cash flow shows what must change before the board can commit to it.
Earnings make the case for a bigger dividend
Conoil earned N7.65 per share in the first nine months of 2026, more than double what it earned in all of 2025. If the fourth quarter matches the third quarter’s N0.22 per share, full-year earnings would reach about N7.87.
At that level, a N3.50 dividend would take 44.5% of earnings, a smaller share of profit than the company paid out with its N2.00 dividend for 2025.
That does not require Conoil to get back to the N12.64 per share it earned in 2024, and the fourth-quarter assumption does not depend on a strong finish.
Third-quarter revenue rose to N100.23 billion, but pre-tax profit fell 73.4% to N206.51 million. The projection simply asks Conoil to repeat a quarter in which profits were already under pressure.
If it does, restoring the old dividend would still leave more than half of the year’s earnings in the business.
Conoil needs to turn more of its sales into cash
Restoring the N3.50 dividend would cost Conoil about N2.43 billion, roughly N1 billion more than paying N2.00 again.
The earnings make room for it. The problem is that the business brought in only about N275 million in net cash from its day-to-day operations in the first nine months, while borrowings rose and cash in the bank fell.
The clearest way to close that gap is to get paid faster. In the first nine months of 2026, an increase in trade and other receivables tied up N23.35 billion.
Collecting more of what Conoil is owed is the clearest way to fund the N2.43 billion payout without leaning harder on expensive overdrafts.
Management should start by chasing overdue customer payments and tightening payment terms on new sales. If those efforts leave more cash after the company pays its own bills, Conoil can fund a bigger dividend without borrowing to pay shareholders.
At N210 per share, investors are paying about N27 for every N1 Conoil could earn in 2026 and N3.27 for every N1 of its book value. So, while the shares are still well below where they ended 2024, buyers today are already paying for a recovery. The last dividend, meanwhile, offers a yield of just 0.95% at that price.
Restoring the N3.50 payout would lift that yield to 1.67%. It would do little to make up for what shareholders lost in 2025, but it would give them a share of the recovery in cash. Conoil should make faster collections a priority and restore the N3.50 dividend if it can fund it after paying its own bills.
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