{"id":10575,"date":"2026-11-06T04:16:01","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T04:16:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/2026\/11\/06\/nigerias-oil-revenue-crisis-goes-beyond-theft-and-vandalism-businessday-ng\/"},"modified":"2026-11-06T04:16:01","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T04:16:01","slug":"nigerias-oil-revenue-crisis-goes-beyond-theft-and-vandalism-businessday-ng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/2026\/11\/06\/nigerias-oil-revenue-crisis-goes-beyond-theft-and-vandalism-businessday-ng\/","title":{"rendered":"Nigeria\u2019s oil revenue crisis goes beyond theft and vandalism – Businessday NG"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nigeria\u2019s oil earnings in the first quarter fell sharply short of budget expectations, despite crude prices trading well above the benchmark. The Federal Government\u2019s figures make the contradiction difficult to ignore: oil averaged $83 a barrel, against a benchmark of $64.85, but gross revenue was just \u20a62.97 trillion, barely a third of the prorated \u20a69.33 trillion target. The resulting \u20a66.36 trillion shortfall points to a problem deeper than crude theft and pipeline vandalism. Nigeria is losing revenue not simply because some of its oil is stolen, but because it continues to struggle to produce, account for and convert its petroleum resources into public income.\n<\/p>\n

Production did disappoint, at 1.55 million barrels a day against an assumed 1.84 million. But set price against volume, and the story shifts. On the report\u2019s own numbers, the quarter\u2019s output at the realised price was worth roughly 8 percent more in dollar terms than the budget assumed, because higher prices outweighed lower volumes. Revenue nonetheless landed at less than a third of the target. Whatever swallowed the difference, it was not mainly barrels or price.\n<\/p>\n

The arithmetic is simple, and the report does not close the loop. Deductions, domestic crude obligations, cost recovery, retentions by NNPC Limited, exchange-rate assumptions and the timing of remittances could each explain part of the gap. The problem is that the public cannot identify which factors contribute to the revenue, and a budget based on untraceable revenue is essentially a budget based on hope.\n<\/p>\n

Read also:\u00a0Atiku to FG: Explain N1,450 petrol price despite rising oil revenues<\/a><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

Theft is real, and the audit record deserves careful reading. The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) recorded 36.69 million barrels of crude losses in 2022, of which 21.15 million were attributed to theft and sabotage and 11.25 million to measurement errors. In 2023, reported losses fell 79 percent to 7.68 million barrels. That is genuine progress, though it needs independent verification and an account of what worked. It also puts the first-quarter shortfall in perspective. A production gap of about 290,000 barrels a day over 90 days is roughly 26 million barrels, more than three times the whole of 2023\u2019s reported losses. The two measures are not strictly comparable, since production shortfalls also reflect deferments and under-investment, but the scale is telling. Theft explains part of the problem, not the whole problem.<\/p>\n

The consequences reach well beyond the petroleum sector. Total federal revenue was \u20a65.08 trillion, 44.93 percent below its prorated target, and non-oil revenue missed its own by 32.34 percent. Debt service took \u20a64.63 trillion, about 91 percent of actual revenue, while the deficit reached \u20a64.69 trillion. By 31 March, no releases had been made for 2026 capital budgets. When oil underdelivers, the debt is paid first, and roads, power and hospitals wait. Fixing this starts with accounting, not enforcement.\n<\/p>\n

First, the government should explain the gap. The Ministry of Finance, NNPC Limited and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) should publish a quarterly bridge from budgeted to actual oil revenue, showing the effect of price, volume, deductions, retentions, exchange rate and timing. Without it, nobody can say how much an extra barrel will add to the treasury.\n<\/p>\n

Second, every barrel must be accounted for. NUPRC should publish regular reconciliations of metered production, pipeline receipts, terminal exports and recorded losses, and operators should explain discrepancies. Measurement errors accounted for 11.25 million barrels in 2022, a reminder that part of this is a bookkeeping problem, not only a criminal one.\n<\/p>\n

Read also:\u00a0Reps begin investigation into N432 billion oil revenue debt<\/a><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

Third, security spending should be paid for results. Contracts should be tied to independently verified reductions in theft, pipeline breaches and repair costs, not to patrols mounted or arrests announced. Investigations must follow the financiers, transporters, storage operators and buyers who make theft profitable, with prosecutions and forfeited assets reported openly. Host communities, whose cooperation matters, should see how their development trusts spend what they receive.<\/p>\n

Fourth, restore existing capacity before chasing new projects. NUPRC and NNPC Limited should publish the bottlenecks that most constrain output, with repair costs, responsible operators, expected gains and completion dates. Investors, for their part, need predictable regulation, timely approvals and clarity on fiscal obligations.\n<\/p>\n

Finally, budget with humility. Quarterly comparisons of projected and actual production, prices, exports and receipts should be public, and persistent misses should force a review of assumptions rather than a repeat of the same targets.\n<\/p>\n

Nigeria cannot keep budgeting on oil it has not produced, measured, sold or been paid for. The fall in reported losses shows that progress is possible. But a government that cannot trace each naira from the wellhead to the treasury is poorly placed to blame thieves for the shortfall. Until it can, favourable prices will keep delivering less relief than the country expects.<\/p>\n

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Source: <\/p>\n

Businessday NG<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nigeria\u2019s oil earnings in the first quarter fell sharply short of budget expectations, despite crude prices trading well above the benchmark. The Federal Government\u2019s figures make the contradiction difficult to… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10576,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10575\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10576"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalnigerianews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}