\u201cLula is pragmatic enough to work out some kind of modus operandi with the Trump administration,\u201d said Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, adding that the Bolsonaros\u2019 allies in Washington would likely lose sway after the family\u2019s second electoral defeat. Fl\u00e1vio\u2019s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, lost to Lula in 2022.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m not sure anyone in the Trump administration, beyond a few individuals, will want to keep making the Bolsonaros the central issue in the U.S.-Brazil relationship,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\tTrump’s missing piece\t\t\t<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Across much of Latin America, voters fed up with organized crime and economic insecurity have rewarded presidential candidates promising to restore order. From Peru\u2019s Keiko Fujimori to Colombia\u2019s Abelardo de la Espriella and Chile\u2019s Jos\u00e9 Antonio Kast, newly elected conservatives have courted Trump while taking their cues from El Salvador\u2019s President Nayib Bukele, whose sweeping gang crackdown has sharply reduced homicides at the cost of mass arrests and suspended civil liberties.<\/p>\n
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Trump has reinforced that shift with electoral endorsements, financial bailouts and millions of dollars in military aid.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe U.S. is certainly putting its finger on the scale to try to help the more hard-line right-wing elements in the region,\u201d said Kenneth Roberts, a professor of government at Cornell University.<\/p>\n
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Brazil would have been Washington\u2019s most consequential addition. Bolsonaro had promised to join the U.S.-led security coalition \u201cwith great enthusiasm and great honor,\u201d making his alliance with Trump part of his pitch to voters.<\/p>\n
Lula, by contrast, has championed Brazil\u2019s long tradition of nonalignment, cultivating ties with competing powers. His government deepened trade ties with China and sought greater global influence through BRICS, a group of emerging economies.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s heavy-handed support for the Bolsonaros played into that message. The double-digit tariffs he imposed on a range of Brazilian goods to punish Brazil for prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro over a coup plot to oust Lula stirred a nationalist backlash that the leftist leader channeled into the rallying cry \u201cBrazil belongs to Brazilians.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cTo the extent that the regional superpower becomes a threat to Brazil\u2019s democratic institutions, defending Brazilian national sovereignty also becomes a form of defending Brazilian democracy,\u201d Roberts said.<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\tLula’s red lines\t\t\t<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Brazil resisted joining the Shield of the Americas, a U.S.-led military coalition targeting cartels.<\/p>\n
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When Washington in May designated Brazil\u2019s two largest criminal factions, the First Capital Command and the Red Command, as terrorist organizations, Lula warned the labels could become a pretext for American intervention.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t accept being treated like children,\u201d he said after the announcement. Of the gangs, he added: \u201cWe will fight them here at home.\u201d<\/p>\n
Countries along the main northbound cocaine and migrant routes, many of them heavily dependent on the U.S. market, have been more accommodating. In Ecuador, U.S. troops have joined local police in raids targeting suspected drug networks across the coastal lowlands. Honduras, Guatemala and Colombia have also agreed to joint military operations, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said, though Guatemala\u2019s government has denied it.<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\tMore on World<\/button>More videos<\/button>\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\u201cBrazil is not Honduras. It\u2019s a large country with a very independent history and a military that would not look kindly upon foreign troops in its own territory,\u201d said Brian Winter, a veteran Latin America analyst and editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, a policy journal. \u201cThe Trump administration will have to walk a certain line here.\u201d<\/p>\n
Washington may also have less reason to press Lula on military cooperation. Most of the cocaine moving through Brazil is consumed in the country or shipped to Europe and Africa, rather than the U.S.<\/p>\n
On critical minerals, Lula wants Brazil to control its resources and preserve its freedom to sell beyond the U.S.<\/p>\n
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Brazil holds the world\u2019s second-largest known reserves of rare earths, used in powerful magnets for guided missiles, smartphones, wind turbines and electric vehicles.<\/p>\n
Last month, USA Rare Earth, in which the U.S. government holds a stake, completed its $2.8 billion takeover of Serra Verde, the Brazilian firm that owns one of the few mines outside of Asia producing all four rare earths needed for those magnets. Alarmed by the expanding U.S. role, Lula\u2019s administration fast-tracked legislation tightening oversight of critical minerals.<\/p>\n
\u201cRevisiting the Serra Verde\u2013USA Rare Earth deal may not be the first thing that Lula does when he\u2019s reelected, but it\u2019s on his radar,\u201d said Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.<\/p>\n
Brazil also produces about 90 per cent of the world\u2019s niobium, a critical element for jet, rocket engines and other military hardware, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Any Brazilian export restrictions could disrupt supply chains for U.S. defense manufacturers.<\/p>\n
\u201cBrazil has leverage,\u201d de Bolle said. \u201cWith Lula, the U.S. is on shakier ground.\u201d<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\tCompromise at home and abroad\t\t\t<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n For all his defiant public statements, Lula has sought peace with Trump. His White House visit in May to discuss trade, organized crime and critical minerals undercut the Bolsonaros\u2019 claim that only they could deal with Washington.<\/p>\n
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More bargaining with Trump surely lies ahead over tariffs and with Brazil\u2019s Congress, where conservatives expanded their ranks in the Oct. 4 elections, depriving Lula of the backing he needs to institute meaningful reforms. After three previous terms, Lula confronts voters impatient for safer streets and relief from the high cost of living.<\/p>\n
\u201cLula has his hands tied,\u201d said Guilherme Casar\u00f5es, an associate professor of Brazilian studies at Florida International University. \u201cPretty much everything he has tried to do has been blocked in Congress.\u201d<\/p>\n
Across Latin America, coalitions that united against a common opponent have often splintered as the realities of governing set in. Trump\u2019s new allies are already losing support in Chile, Bolivia and Peru, suggesting the region\u2019s rightward turn may be less durable than it appears. Lula bucked the anti-incumbent trend, but his support could evaporate quickly as he bargains with opponents \u2014 in Congress and beyond Brazil\u2019s borders \u2014 to deliver the results voters expect.<\/p>\n
Source: <\/p>\n
: World<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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