Nigeria’s grid operator has said a drop in electricity generation is the result of tight gas supply to thermal power plants and weaker output from hydroelectric stations, a combination that is leaving many homes and businesses with fewer hours of power.
The Nigerian Independent System Operator, or NISO, said in a statement on Thursday that limited gas availability has stopped affected thermal stations from running at their available capacity.
Separately, lower water inflows into reservoirs have cut generation at hydropower plants, it said.
The shortfall has reduced the amount of electricity allocated to distribution companies, known as DisCos, which supply consumers. That has meant shorter hours of supply and more load shedding across distribution networks, NISO said. The severity varies by region, depending on how much generation is available and what each DisCo is allocated.
Gas dependence is the central weakness of Nigeria’s power system. Most of the country’s grid capacity comes from gas-fired plants, so any disruption to fuel deliveries, whether from pipeline problems, supply shortfalls or payment disputes, quickly shows up in the amount of power available.
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Hydropower, from plants such as Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro, supplies a smaller share, and its output rises and falls with river levels and rainfall.
When both sources weaken at once, there is little spare capacity to fall back on. Nigeria’s grid has long operated with narrow margins, and a loss of generation is typically passed on to consumers as scheduled and unscheduled outages rather than absorbed by the system.
The effect is felt unevenly. Because NISO allocates available power among DisCos, some networks receive less than others, and customers in areas with a smaller allocation can see longer blackouts. Many households and small businesses already rely on petrol and diesel generators or solar systems to fill the gaps, which raises their costs.
NISO said it recognises the effect of the shortfall on consumers across the country and appreciates the concerns raised by the public and other stakeholders.
The operator said it is working to diversify the energy mix feeding the national grid to improve security of supply, though it gave no details on which sources it has in mind or on what timeline.
In the meantime, it said it will keep the grid stable, optimise the dispatch of available generation and operate the network securely and efficiently within what it called prevailing operational constraints.
Wider Implications
Repeated power shortfalls have long weighed on Nigerian businesses, particularly manufacturers and small enterprises that depend on steady electricity. Unreliable supply raises operating costs, strains household budgets and adds to the broader cost-of-living pressures facing consumers.
The latest slump puts renewed focus on the reliability of gas supply to power plants and on the condition of the sector’s finances. Gas suppliers, generators, distribution companies and the grid operator are linked in a chain of payments, and a weak link at any point can reduce the fuel that reaches the plants.
NISO said it would continue to manage the grid within current limits. It did not say when generation is expected to recover.
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Dipo Oladehinde is a skilled energy analyst with experience across Nigeria’s energy sector alongside relevant know-how about Nigeria’s macro economy.
He provides a blend of market intelligence, financial analysis, industry insight, micro and macro-level analysis of a wide range of local and international issues as well as informed technical rudiments for policy-making and private directions.
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