…as the season commences
Nigeria’s cocoa farmers expect maincrop production to hold steady this season as favorable weather patterns across key growing regions support pod development, harvesting, and drying.
A balanced mix of timely rainfall and prolonged sunshine in the country’s cocoa belt has helped mitigate earlier cultivation challenges, laying the groundwork for a stable harvest as the new season officially begins.
“We are going to retain our output for the 2026/2027 maincrop season,” Adeola Adegoke, national president of the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria (CFAN), said in a telephone response to questions. “The weather conditions are favourable, and rains have not stopped, even with the heat. This is helping the pods develop well and also for sun drying,” Adegoke said.
While yield per tree was lower during the 2026/2027 cycle compared with the previous year’s record output, improvement in climatic conditions has prevented a sharper decline.
Farmers say alternating sun and rain cycles over recent months have created ideal conditions for pod ripening, easing concerns over disease outbreaks that threatened crop quality. “The rain started when it was supposed to. In fact, we’re still having some rain, which is also good for the season,” said Lawrence Afere, founder of Springboard Farmers’ Co-operative of Nigeria and maker of Tiwa Chocolate.
“It means that we’re going to have a kind of elongated harvest season up to around February or March,” Afere noted, explaining that the alternating weather cycles are preventing disease outbreaks and ensuring beans are well dried and stored.
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However, looming climate shifts are casting a shadow over the mid-crop and 2027/2028 prospects, with farmers increasingly worried about the onset of an El Niño pattern expected to hit West Africa next year.
Prolonged dry spells and elevated temperatures typically associated with the climate phenomenon threaten to disrupt flowering in early 2027.
“We are enjoying good sunshine and moisture right now to dry our beans, but everyone is anxious about next year,” said Felix Oladunjoye, chairman of the Cocoa Processors Association of Nigeria (COPAN). “If El Niño brings severe dry conditions into early 2027, the heat stress will hit tree yields hard just as the mid-crop tries to take off,” he added.
The steady production outlook comes as global markets closely monitor West African cocoa supply following years of heightened price volatility and structural supply deficits.
As harvesting gains momentum, stable output from Nigeria could provide much-needed relief to global supply chains and offer price support for local exporters navigating fluctuating international benchmarks.
Nigeria is the world’s fourth-largest cocoa producer, after Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Ecuador, with production of 315,000 tonnes in the 2022/23 cocoa season, according to the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO).
Nigeria has two cocoa harvest seasons, including the smaller mid-crop from April to June, and the main crop from October to December.
The main crop accounts for about 70 percent of Nigeria’s cocoa output, while the mid-crop accounts for 30 percent of the total production for the season.
As at the time of writing, a metric ton of cocoa sells for an average of N7.5 million and a kg sells for N7,500 at the farm gate. Globally, a metric ton sells for N4,949 per ton, according to the ICCO daily price.
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Josephine Okojie-Okeiyi is a journalist with over five years’ reporting experience. She writes on industry, agriculture, commodities, climate change, and environmental issues.
She is fellow of Thomson Reuters Foundation and Bloomberg Media Initiative for Africa.
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