Nigeria’s ambition to regain investment-grade sovereign credit status by 2029 faces a significant historical hurdle, as S&P Global Ratings says no sovereign rated in the single-B category has moved to investment grade within three years.
Samira Mensah, Managing Director for Research and Analytics in Africa at S&P Global Ratings, said the country’s target would be difficult to achieve within the proposed timeframe, given the historical experience of sovereign credit-rating transitions.
Speaking in an interview in Lagos, Mensah said S&P had not historically observed a country moving from a single-B rating to investment grade within three years, highlighting the scale of improvements Nigeria would need to sustain to achieve the government’s ambition.
“We have never actually seen a sovereign go from a single B to investment grade in three years, historically,” Mensah said.
Her comments come after Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele announced that Nigeria was targeting investment-grade status within three years, as the Federal Government seeks to attract more international capital, strengthen investor confidence and deepen the domestic financial market.
Speaking at the S&P Global Africa Summit in Lagos on November 10, Oyedele described the target as ambitious but achievable, arguing that recent economic reforms had improved the country’s investment proposition.
The minister cited the removal of petrol subsidies, foreign exchange market liberalisation and comprehensive tax reforms as important measures undertaken by the administration to improve macroeconomic stability and strengthen public finances.
He also pointed to improvements in Nigeria’s external position and investor sentiment. According to Oyedele, the premium investors demand to hold Nigerian Eurobonds over United States Treasuries had declined from approximately 900 basis points to 300 basis points.
Nigeria currently holds a B long-term sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook from S&P, following the agency’s decision in May 2026 to upgrade the country from B-.
The upgrade was the first by S&P since 2012 and reflected improvements in the country’s economic and external position, including higher oil production and prices, increased domestic refining capacity and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market.
Despite the improvement, Nigeria remains five rating notches below the lowest investment-grade category, BBB-.
Fitch Ratings currently assigns Nigeria a B rating with a positive outlook, while Moody’s Ratings places the country at B3 with a positive outlook. Investment-grade thresholds begin at BBB- for S&P and Fitch and Baa3 for Moody’s.
Mensah acknowledged the Nigerian government’s efforts to improve its economic and fiscal position, but suggested that policymakers should place greater emphasis on sustained improvements in economic fundamentals than on achieving a particular rating within a predetermined period.
According to her, consistent progress in the right direction remains more important than targeting a specific credit-rating outcome.
The challenge is not simply to secure further rating upgrades, but to demonstrate that improvements in fiscal revenue, foreign exchange liquidity, external reserves and debt sustainability can be maintained over an extended period.
Oyedele has also linked Nigeria’s credit-rating ambitions to broader capital-market reforms, including efforts to secure inclusion in MSCI’s Emerging Markets classification rather than remaining within frontier-market benchmarks.
The government’s longer-term capital-market roadmap targets an expansion in market capitalisation from approximately ₦250 trillion to ₦750 trillion by 2036, as authorities seek to attract greater domestic and international investment.
While S&P’s assessment highlights the difficulty of Nigeria’s three-year investment-grade ambition, the agency’s recognition of the country’s reform progress provides an indication that improvements in economic fundamentals remain central to its future rating trajectory.
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