This outlook is detailed in the newly launched 2026 Wet Season Crop Production Report by AFEX Commodities Exchange. The report, themed “Feeding Our Growing Nation,” evaluates the key drivers shaping Nigeria’s agricultural landscape and outlines critical interventions required to bolster national food security.
According to the report, several commodity value chains are poised for rebound and expansion. Ginger is showing strong signs of recovery following previous seasons’ production setbacks, while soya bean output is projected to climb in the upcoming 2026/2027 market season.
Cocoa is similarly forecast to record improved yields backed by favourable production conditions. Sesame also maintains a positive outlook driven by strong export and domestic market opportunities, though lingering disease outbreaks remain a key risk factor.
Furthermore, farmers experienced better access to fertiliser during the 2026 wet season, a development partly credited to federal and state government subsidy initiatives.
AFEX notes that these positive trends create fresh avenues for private investment, deeper market participation, and stronger domestic value chains.
Despite gains in cash crops, the report warns of severe production headwinds for key staple foods, raising concerns over domestic supply gaps. Rice output is projected to drop by 1.9 million metric tonnes, while maize production is expected to decline by 1.5 million metric tonnes.
To counteract these deficits and keep pace with rising national demand, the report emphasises the urgent need for targeted interventions, alongside better access to finance, upgraded agricultural infrastructure, and adaptive strategies to manage shifting weather patterns and commodity price volatility.
The report’s insights are anchored in primary survey data from roughly 41,000 randomly sampled farmers nationwide.
These field findings were cross-referenced with secondary data from AFEX Commodities Exchange, the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Commenting on the report, Akinyinka Akintunde, Chief Executive Officer of AFEX Commodities Exchange Limited, stressed the need for data-driven systemic reform.
“We need to aggregate quality data, consolidate key successes and establish systems that will further strengthen agricultural production capacity to achieve food security,” Akintunde said.
Looking toward the 2026/2027 market season, AFEX urges tighter collaboration among government agencies, farmers, agribusinesses, financial institutions, and development partners.
The report highlighted that feeding Nigeria’s growing population requires translating agricultural intelligence into practical action, building the market infrastructure, financing mechanisms, and partnerships necessary to sustain long-term productivity.
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