South Africa’s governing African National Congress (ANC) faced the prospect of its worst municipal election performance as early results showed its support falling sharply, raising fresh questions about the party’s grip on power ahead of the 2029 national elections.
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With 28 percent of votes counted by 9:22 GMT on Thursday, the ANC had secured about 32 percent, narrowly ahead of the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 28 percent, according to the Electoral Commission of South Africa.
Although counting remained at an early stage and the figures could change, the result represented a potential decline of about 14 percentage points from the ANC’s 2021 municipal election performance. That election had already marked the party’s weakest showing since it came to power in 1994.
The early figures reflect growing voter dissatisfaction with the ANC, which has faced criticism over corruption, high crime rates, unemployment and persistent failures in basic services, including electricity and water supply.
“The ANC is performing worse than expected – and expectations were already low,” said Louw Nel, senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa to Reuters. He described a result around 32 percent as “the party’s worst nightmare coming true”.
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The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, which tracks election trends, projected that the ANC could finish with a vote share close to its early result, although the final count remained uncertain.
The ANC has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994 and remains the country’s largest political party. However, its support has weakened over successive elections, culminating in its loss of a parliamentary majority in the 2024 general election, when it secured about 40 per cent of the national vote and entered a coalition government with the DA and smaller parties.
The DA, meanwhile, was performing strongly in several major cities, while former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party and the Inkatha Freedom Party were ahead of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, according to the early results.
Helen Zille, the DA’s mayoral candidate in Johannesburg, expressed confidence in her party’s performance but cautioned against drawing conclusions before more votes were counted.
“It’s still early days and this early on you can’t really call the outcome. But I think we will do well and I am very excited,” she said.
ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe also urged caution, arguing that important voting areas had yet to be included in the tally.
“We may improve. … Major areas, townships, and other areas have not been counted yet,” he said.
Johannesburg emerges as key battleground
The contest for Johannesburg is among the most closely watched races, with control of the country’s economic hub offering a significant political prize for whichever party can secure enough support to govern.
The DA already controls Cape Town, but several major municipalities, including Johannesburg, are expected to produce fragmented results in which no single party wins an outright majority.
That would force political parties into coalition negotiations after the final results are declared, with parties expected to have two weeks to reach agreements. The Electoral Commission was expected to announce the final results on Sunday.
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The negotiations could prove difficult, particularly in Johannesburg, where the ANC and DA have opposing positions on key issues, including racial redress and economic policy.
Some analysts have suggested that an ANC-DA coalition could offer greater stability in major cities, mirroring their arrangement in the national government. However, the parties could also pursue alternative alliances, with the ANC potentially negotiating with the Economic Freedom Fighters or Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party.
The outcome of those negotiations could determine how effectively local governments address service delivery and financial challenges in the country’s major urban centres.
Pressure builds ahead of 2029 elections
Beyond municipal leadership, the results could shape the balance of power ahead of South Africa’s next national elections in 2029.
The DA hopes to use the ANC’s declining support to strengthen its position as the country’s leading political alternative. A sustained loss of support for the governing party could also encourage smaller parties to seek a greater role in national politics.
However, the early results do not yet establish the scale of the ANC’s losses or determine which parties will ultimately control the key municipalities. Much will depend on the remaining votes and the coalition agreements that follow.
For the ANC, the elections offer another indication of the challenge of rebuilding public trust after years of dissatisfaction with local governance. For its rivals, the results present an opportunity to convert growing voter support into control of the country’s major cities.
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Faith Omoboye is a foreign affairs correspondent with background in History and International relations. Her work focuses on African politics, diplomacy, and global governance.
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