The World Bank has projected that Brent, Nigeria’s benchmark crude oil prices will fall to an average of $79 per barrel in 2027, on the back of recovering global production and weak oil consumption.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the bank projected prices to approach $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, as supply disruptions in the Middle East, tanker shortages and attacks on vessels keep the oil market tight.
However, the bank projects crude shipments from the Gulf to remain elevated, allowing global oil production to recover in 2027, putting downward pressure on prices.
“After sharp swings in 2026 Q3, the front-month Brent oil price is expected to remain elevated in the near term, averaging almost $100 per barrel in 2026 Q4 and $91 per barrel in 2026 as a whole,” the World Bank noted.
“Next year, the price is projected to recede gradually to an average of $79 per barrel, as the market moves into surplus, before declining to $70 per barrel in 2028,” the Bank added.
The outlook points to a reversal in energy prices after a year of supply disruptions. The bank projects global energy prices to rise by 32 percent year-on-year in 2026 before declining by 12 percent in 2027.
Compared with its April forecasts, the bank raised its energy price projections by seven percent for 2026 and 14 percent for 2027, reflecting expectations that supply disruptions will persist longer than previously anticipated, although their intensity is expected to moderate.
The global oil market is expected to remain in deficit in the fourth quarter of 2026, supporting prices before recovering production eases supply constraints next year.
On the demand side, global oil consumption is projected to contract by 2.6 million barrels per day, or 2.5 percent this year, according to the World Bank.
The report noted that the decline will rank as the third-largest on record, after the contractions recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the oil market turmoil of 1980.
The combination of weaker demand and recovering supply is expected to ease pressure on prices in 2027, although the pace of the decline will depend on developments in the Middle East and the durability of crude shipments from the Gulf.
The forecast comes amid heightened volatility in global oil markets as tensions involving the United States and Iran raise concerns about disruptions to energy supplies.
Brent oil prices retreated on October 26 after approaching its highest levels since May, as hopes of reduced hostilities between Washington and Tehran eased concerns about potential supply disruptions.
The World Bank’s latest projections suggest that oil prices could remain elevated in the near term before easing as production recovers.
However, a prolonged disruption to Gulf shipments might delay the anticipated decline.
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Feyishola Jaiyesimi is a writer and storyteller. She currently writes for the energy desk at BusinessDay with a focus on renewable energy and environmental issues. She began her journalism career as an agricultural reporter and now covers the energy sector, including oil, gas, electricity, environment, and renewables. She has been selected for professional training by the US Consulate, Lagos. She is a 2025 Dataphyte Biodiversity Reporting Fellow. Feyishola holds a bachelor’s degree in Zoology and Environmental Biology from Ekiti State University.
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