Donald Trump’s declining approval rating and persistent cost-of-living pressures are weighing on Republican prospects as Americans prepare to vote in congressional midterm elections that could reshape the balance of power in Washington.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday found that 46 percent of registered voters would support Democratic candidates in congressional elections, compared with 38 percent for Republicans, giving Democrats an eight percentage point lead on the generic ballot. Although the gap narrowed from 11 points in a similar poll a week earlier, the findings suggest that dissatisfaction with the president remains a significant factor in the contest.
Trump’s approval rating stood at 32 percent, unchanged from the previous week and close to a record low of 31 percent recorded two weeks earlier. Among independent voters, half said their vote in the congressional elections was intended to oppose Trump, while 13 percent said it was a vote in his favour. Another 33 percent said the president was not a factor in their decision.
The poll, which surveyed 1,765 US adults online over five days, had a margin of error of two percentage points.
The figures present a challenge for Republicans, who hold narrow majorities in Congress and are seeking to retain control of both chambers. Midterm elections have historically tended to favour the party outside the White House, as voters use the polls to express dissatisfaction with the sitting president. The 2002 elections, held in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, were a notable exception, when Republicans gained seats.
Economic concerns have become central to the campaign. Although the US economy continues to record growth and unemployment remains relatively low, persistent inflation has left many households struggling with the cost of groceries, housing, transport and energy. Annual inflation rose 3.7 percent in September, according to the figures provided, keeping pressure on household budgets and giving Democrats an opening to challenge the administration’s economic record.
Trump has sought to counter the criticism by pointing to falling oil prices and what he describes as the success of his economic and foreign policies. At an appearance at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington on Monday, he highlighted a sharp decline in crude prices, claiming that oil had fallen by $10 in a single day and would drop further.
Brent crude fell 7.3 percent to about $106 a barrel, while US oil futures declined by nearly 7 percent to below $97. The movement followed developments in diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran. However, petrol and diesel prices remained high, with fuel costs continuing to feature prominently in campaign debates.
Trump also devoted much of his final public remarks before election day to renovations at the Reflecting Pool, displaying photographs of the work and discussing the materials used. He eventually turned to the elections, acknowledging the historical difficulty faced by presidents seeking to maintain congressional majorities at midterm polls.
“For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot,” he said.
Earlier, Trump warned that he would “veto everything” if Democrats regained control of Congress, signalling the prospect of further confrontation between the White House and lawmakers if Republicans lose their majorities.
JD Vance, the Vice President, campaigning in Ohio, urged voters to support Republican candidates and reject what he described as political extremism. “I want to remind you that we are on the eve of one of the most important — I would actually say the most important — midterm election of my lifetime,” Vance said.
The campaign has also exposed divisions within the Democratic Party. In Michigan, Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed, switched her support to Republican candidate Mike Rogers and appeared with him at a church in Detroit. The contest is important to the Democrats’ effort to challenge the Republican Senate majority.
Despite the pressure on Republicans, the latest polling suggests the contest may be closer than earlier surveys indicated. The narrowing generic ballot lead points to a tightening race, even as Trump’s approval rating and the economy remain vulnerabilities for his party.
The election will test whether voters’ concerns about prices and the president’s performance are strong enough to translate into losses for Republicans in Congress.
Although Trump is not on the ballot, the results will provide a measure of public support for his second-term agenda and determine how much room he has to advance it during the remainder of his presidency.
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Faith Omoboye is a foreign affairs correspondent with background in History and International relations. Her work focuses on African politics, diplomacy, and global governance.
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