Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate reserves shrank by 221.63 million barrels at the start of 2025 even as producers pumped more oil, according to the country’s upstream regulator, underscoring a gap between output growth and new discoveries in Africa’s biggest crude exporter.
The country’s reserves stood at 37.28 billion barrels as of Jan. 1, 2025, down 0.59 percent from 37.50 billion a year earlier, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said in its 2025 annual report published on Friday.
Nigeria produced 622.14 million barrels of crude and condensate in 2025, the report said, comprising 525.18 million barrels of oil and 96.96 million barrels of condensate. That compares with 578.52 million barrels in 2024. The regulator put average output at roughly 1.7 million barrels a day, a 7.5 percent increase.
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The commission credited new production from Petroleum Prospecting License holders, including Naphta Global, Multisub and Ingentia, along with a regulator-led push to reach 1 million barrels a day from marginal and idle assets.
“The figures are unreconciled and shouldn’t be treated as export volumes, “ the commission said.
Output still fell short of what the system could deliver, as technical allowable rates were 2.06 million barrels a day in the first half and 2.16 million in the second, while monthly oil output stayed well below allowable levels throughout the year.
Deferments averaged 116,563 barrels a day, driven by pipeline outages, tank-top constraints at terminals, fires and maintenance shutdowns.
Replacement shortfall
The reserves replacement ratio was 61.79 percent, meaning Nigeria added roughly 358 million barrels of gross reserves against 580 million barrels produced.
The regulator’s life index puts national reserves at about 64 years at current production rates, though that masks wide variation by contract type.
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Sole-risk operations controlled by international oil companies have a life index of about 12 years, against 53 for production-sharing contracts with international firms.
Gas reserves rose 0.61 percent to 210.54 trillion cubic feet from 209.26 trillion, supporting the government’s push to develop the resource under its “Decade of Gas” initiative.
Output reached 2.73 trillion cubic feet, about 7.47 billion cubic feet a day. About 7.89 percent was flared, up from 7.61 percent in 2024. Domestic gas deliveries averaged 77 percent of the allocated obligation, hampered by pipeline and grid constraints.
Pipeline of projects
The commission approved 48 field development plans in 2025, covering about 1.75 billion barrels of oil, 104 million barrels of condensate and 8.19 trillion cubic feet of gas.
First oil from those projects is projected between 2026 and 2030, with expected incremental production of about 743,830 barrels a day of oil. Seven of the plans target non-associated gas only.
The regulator also launched the 2025 licensing round on Dec. 1, 2025, and resolved the long-running OPL 245 dispute with the execution of license and lease instruments on March 4, 2026.
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Revenue and Security
Revenue collected by the commission totalled N10.42 trillion, about 63 percent of its N16.54 trillion target and roughly 20.5 percent below the N12.56 trillion collected in 2024. Oil and gas royalties accounted for N8.97 trillion of the total.
Theft and sabotage continued to weigh on the sector. The report recorded 3.33 million barrels of reported oil theft and 357 spill incidents, nearly half of them attributed to sabotage. Domestic crude supply to refineries reached 103.37 million barrels, of which Dangote’s refinery took 94.44 million.
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Feyishola Jaiyesimi is a writer and storyteller. She currently writes for the energy desk at BusinessDay with a focus on…
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